Summary: I am not a fan of long term predictions in the mobile space, it just moves too fast, and while I would like to see stats like IDC predicts I will have to see it to believe it.
Readers here know that Windows Phone is one of my favorite platforms, especially with the Nokia Lumia 900, but I also regularly state that long term predictions in the mobile space are not very valid. Thus, even though I hope Windows Phone succeeds, I have a hard time buying into the latest IDC report that shows Windows Phone passing iOS by 2016. They are both predicted to be at about 19% of the market while Android falls from the current 61% to 52.9%.
Note that this prediction shows BlackBerry holding fairly steady at about 6%, but unless RIM has a major turnaround with BB OS 10 they may not even make it to 2016. I can see iOS remaining fairly steady since it seems people who want an iPhone already have an iPhone and Apple tends to sell new devices to existing iPhone users now. I would believe Android increasing more than Windows Phone increasing over the next four years, but we will just have to wait and see what happens.
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